14 games · Thursday through Monday · real spreads, DVOA, and turnover margin
🏈 Last Week: 6-6 ATS
🔥 Game of Week: 49ers vs Commanders MNF
🏈 NFL Model — Week 6
Ravens travel to Cleveland with Lamar back, Bills hit the road at Vegas, and the 49ers host Washington on Monday Night. Byes: Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota. Model found 4 strong edges — lead with Ravens and Bills.
EDGEBELL STRONG EDGES — WEEK 6
★★★★★GAME OF THE WEEK
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers
BET
49ers -5.5
49ers at home on Monday Night are elite. San Francisco has top-3 DVOA on both sides and Washington, while improved, doesn't have the personnel to handle the 49ers' motion-heavy offense. Kyle Shanahan is 14-4 at home in prime-time games. Model projects a comfortable cover.
Model Edge: +5.3 pts · O/U 50.5
Mon Oct 19 · 8:15PM MNFESPN/ABC
SF Total DVOA+19.2%
WSH Total DVOA+3.1%
Shanahan Home Prime-Time14-4
SF Turnover Margin+6
Vegas LineSF -5.5
Model ProjectionSF -10.8
★★★★★STRONG EDGE
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
BET
Ravens -6.5
Lamar is back and Baltimore should dominate this divisional matchup. Cleveland has been one of the worst offenses in the AFC — bottom-5 in DVOA — and their defense has been shredded by mobile QBs all year. Ravens cover comfortably on the road.
Model Edge: +5.7 pts · O/U 44.5
Sun Oct 18 · 1PM CBSAFC North
BAL Off DVOA+17.8%
CLE Off DVOA-18.4%
CLE vs Mobile QB DVOA-12.1%
BAL Turnover Margin+8
Vegas LineBAL -6.5
Model ProjectionBAL -12.2
★★★★★STRONG EDGE
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
BET
Bills -6.5
Bills are rolling and Las Vegas remains one of the worst teams in the league — ranked dead last in total DVOA. Buffalo's offense is top-5 and Josh Allen is in full command. Road game, but model projects double-digit margin. Covers easily.
Model Edge: +5.1 pts · O/U 47.5
Sun Oct 18 · 4:25PM CBSAFC
BUF Total DVOA+21.3%
LV Total DVOA-22.7%
LV Def DVOA (ranked)32nd
Vegas LineBUF -6.5
Model ProjectionBUF -11.6
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Seattle is the better team and -1.5 is a small ask. Broncos at home are trickier but their offense has been inconsistent. Seahawks DVOA is superior — lean them on a short number.
Model Edge: +2.4 pts · O/U 43.5
Thu Oct 15 · 8:15PM TNFAmazon Prime
SEA Total DVOA+7.4%
DEN Total DVOA+1.2%
Vegas LineSEA -1.5
Model ProjectionSEA -3.9
Sunday · October 18 · London
★★★LEAN
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
BET
Texans +1.5
London "home" game for Jacksonville, but Texans are the better team by DVOA. Houston's offense is more explosive and this divisional rivalry tends to be close. Take the points with the superior squad.
Model Edge: +2.8 pts · O/U 42.5
Sun Oct 18 · 9:30AM LondonNFL Network
HOU Total DVOA+9.1%
JAC Total DVOA-4.3%
Vegas LineJAC -1.5
Model ProjectionHOU +1.3
Sunday · October 18 · 1:00 PM
★★★★MODERATE EDGE
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
BET
Bears -3.5
Bears have been one of the surprises of 2026 — strong DVOA on both sides and a dynamic offense. Atlanta has been inconsistent at home and their defense has struggled vs. mobile QBs. Chicago covers on the road.
Model Edge: +4.1 pts · O/U 47.5
Sun Oct 18 · 1PM FOXNFC
CHI Total DVOA+11.4%
ATL Home DVOA-3.2%
Vegas LineCHI -3.5
Model ProjectionCHI -7.6
★★★LEAN
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
BET
Eagles -6.5
Eagles at home are dominant and Carolina remains one of the league's weakest teams. Philly's DVOA is top-5 and the Panthers have no answer for their pass rush. Covers at home.
Model Edge: +3.2 pts · O/U 43.5
Sun Oct 18 · 1PM CBSNFC East
PHI Total DVOA+16.8%
CAR Total DVOA-20.1%
Vegas LinePHI -6.5
Model ProjectionPHI -9.7
★★★LEAN
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
BET
Patriots -9.5
Jets have been a disaster — bottom-3 DVOA in the league. New England at home is covering this number easily based on model projections. Low total (42.5) and a big home favorite — model confirms the line direction.
Model Edge: +2.9 pts · O/U 42.5
Sun Oct 18 · 1PM CBSAFC East
NYJ Total DVOA-19.6%
NE Home DVOA+6.3%
Vegas LineNE -9.5
Model ProjectionNE -12.4
—NO EDGE
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
LINE
Colts -3.5
Divisional toss-up. Model sees this game within a point of the Vegas line. Both teams have similar DVOA profiles — pass on this one.
Model Edge: <1 pt · O/U 47.5
Sun Oct 18 · 1PM CBS
Vegas LineIND -3.5
Model ProjectionIND -4.1
VerdictPASS
—NO EDGE
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants
LINE
Giants -2.5
Two struggling teams. Model sees Giants winning by about a field goal — aligned with the line. No edge worth taking. Pass.
Model Edge: <1 pt · O/U 44.5
Sun Oct 18 · 1PM FOX
Vegas LineNYG -2.5
Model ProjectionNYG -2.8
VerdictPASS
—NO EDGE
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LINE
Buccaneers -1.5
Very close game — model projects a 1-point Tampa win. Not enough edge at -1.5. Pass.
Model Edge: <1 pt · O/U 45.5
Sun Oct 18 · 1PM FOX
Vegas LineTB -1.5
Model ProjectionTB -1.2
VerdictPASS
Sunday · October 18 · Afternoon
★★★LEAN
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
BET
Rams -13.5
Rams are clearly superior but -13.5 is a big number. Model projects LA winning by 16-18 — enough to cover comfortably. Arizona's defense has been shredded all year and the Rams' offense is clicking. Lean the Rams but watch for garbage time.
Model Edge: +3.3 pts · O/U 47.5
Sun Oct 18 · 4:05PM FOXNFC West
LAR Total DVOA+14.6%
ARI Def DVOA-18.9%
Vegas LineLAR -13.5
Model ProjectionLAR -16.8
★★★★MODERATE EDGE
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
BET
Chargers +2.5
Chiefs coming off their bye and the market is giving them too much credit. Chargers have improved significantly — their DVOA is nearly equal to Kansas City's this season. LA +2.5 in a divisional game is a live dog with real upset potential. Model projects this game going to the wire.
Model Edge: +3.9 pts · O/U 46.5
Sun Oct 18 · 4:25PM CBSAFC West
LAC Total DVOA+12.8%
KC Total DVOA+14.1%
KC Post-Bye ATS4-6 last 10
Vegas LineKC -2.5
Model ProjectionLAC +1.4
Sunday Night Football · October 18
★★★LEAN
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
BET
Packers -3.5
Packers at Lambeau in prime time have been excellent — 7-1 ATS at home under Matt LaFleur in SNF games. Cowboys' offense has been inconsistent on the road and Green Bay's defense is underrated. Lean the Pack.
Model Edge: +2.6 pts · O/U 51.5
Sun Oct 18 · 8:20PM SNFNBC
GB SNF Home ATS7-1
DAL Road Off DVOA-5.4%
Vegas LineGB -3.5
Model ProjectionGB -6.1
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